Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region:  A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics

Nadezhda Ulyanchenko; Roman Kotov

doi:10.21603/2500-3372-2026-11-1-131-140

VAK Russia

5.2.3

DEMOGRAPHIC MODELING IN THE KEMEROVO REGION: A COHORT-COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics

АА Аа

Published in Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Political, Sociological and Economic sciences · Pages 131–140 · Rubric: REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMY

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2026-11-1-131-140 · EDN: YRVIDI

Received: 26.09.2025 Accepted: 05.11.2025 Published: 25.03.2026

Authors

Nadezhda Ulyanchenko

Roman Kotov

ORCID SPIN

Nadezhda Ulyanchenko

Kemerovo State University Russian Federation · Kemerovo

Roman Kotov

Kemerovo State University Russian Federation · Kemerovo

ORCID SPIN

ABSTRACT

Several Russian regions face critical demographic challenges, including depopulation, an aging population, and youth out-migration, which collectively constrain local socio-economic development. Given its severe population decline, the Kemerovo Region requires urgent demographic forecasting. This article presents scenario-based population projections for the region using the cohort-component method, supplemented by statistical analysis, systemic modeling, and extrapolation. This methodology was adapted to the specific demographic and socio-economic conditions of Western Siberia. The key indicators included mortality and birth rates at the municipal level, internal and external migration, labor mobility, and urbanization trends. The resulting integrated approach combines the cohort-component analysis with an assessment of the economic, environmental, and institutional factors influencing the regional demographic dynamics. The study provides four demographic forecast scenarios for the Kemerovo Region through 2036: inertial, inertial (optimistic), moderate, and target. For each scenario, the authors identified the key parameters driving population trajectories based on critical demographic shifts.

KEYWORDS

demographic policy, demographic forecast, scenario-based forecasting, demographic processes, depopulation, mathematical displacement method, Kemerovo Region, Kuzbass

1. Kishenin P. A. Regional differentiation of fertility in the Russian Federation: Cohort perspectives. Demographic Review, 2023, 10(4): 86–120. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v10i4.18810

2. Shorokhov S. I. The forecast of the size and age structure of the economically active population of Altai territory and Kemerovo Region. Vestnik Kemerovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2014, (1-2): 240–246. (In Russ.) https://elibrary.ru/satkcz

3. Rybakovsky O. L. Reproduction of the population of the regions of Russia in 1992–2024: Results, components, factors. Population, 2023, 27(4): 4–17. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-4-4-17

4. Prokhorov B. B., Ivanova E. I., Shmakov D. I., Shcherbakova E. M. Medical and demographic forecasting. Moscow: Maks Press, 2011, 355. (In Russ.) https://elibrary.ru/rcipyn

5. Nazarov A. A., Nosova M. G. The technique of aging in demography and its applications. Tomsk State University Journal of Control and Computer Science, 2009, (3): 67–74. (In Russ.) https://elibrary.ru/mnhjot

6. Rybakovsky O. L. Depopulation in European Russian Regions in 1992–2024. DEMIS. Demographic research, 2024, 4(4): 139–151. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2024.4.4.8

7. Malisheva K. K., Kulpina E. E. Analysis of the demographic situation in Kemerovo Oblast: Trends and problem points. Young Russia: Proc. XIV All-Russian Sci.-Prac. Conf. with Intern. Participation, Kemerovo, 19–21 Apr 2022. Kemerovo: KuzSTU, 2022, 45–62. (In Russ.) https://elibrary.ru/flinam

8. Tyuzhina M. V. Birth and death rates in conditions of depopulation in the Kemerovo Region. Education, science, and innovative studies by young researchers: Proc. XVII (XLIX) Intern. Sci. Conf., Kemerovo, 19–30 Apr 2022. Kemerovo: KemSU, 2022, 474–476. (In Russ.) https://elibrary.ru/plwxry

9. Morozova E. A., Kochneva O. P. Youth migration in the Kemerovo Region (Kuzbass). Vestnik Kemerovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriia: Politicheskie, sotsiologicheskie i ekonomicheskie nauki, 2021, 6(3): 326–338. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2021-6-3-326-338

10. Pobedash N. V., Volfson E. N. Regional labor market trends. Teaching management, learning management: Proc. VII Sci.-Prac. Conf. with Intern. Participation, Kemerovo, 21 Feb 2021. Kemerovo: KuzSTU, 2021, 305–310. (In Russ.) https://elibrary.ru/vfktuy

11. Neshataev A. V. Human capital in territories with different level of socio-economic well-being: Assessment and influence. Russian Journal of Regional Studies, 2023, 31(1): 123–142. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.122.031.202301.123-142

12. Belousova A. V., Gritsko M. A. Demographic dynamics of the Russian Far East in the context of the implementation of national priorities: Sustainable trends and growth constraints. Regionalistica, 2022, 9(6): 37–51. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.14530/reg.2022.6.37

13. Rodina O. A. Regional variation of fertility and its relation to the socio-economic development of Russian regions. Demographic Review, 2023, 10(2): 63–103. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v10i2.17766

14. Budazhanaeva M. Ts. Demographic trends in rural areas of the Russian Federation. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 2024, 20(4): 612–628. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_10_612_628

15. Rybakovsky O. L. The age structure of the population of the regions of Russia at the beginning of the 21st century: Components of formation. Population, 2023, 26(1): 4–15. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2023.26.1.1

16. Population of the post-Soviet countries: Trends, forecasts, and intergenerational transfers, ed. Denisenko M. B. Moscow: Prometei, 2024, 752. (In Russ.) https://elibrary.ru/grobmz

17. Chernyshev K. A. Demographic dynamics of the largest urban agglomerations in Russia. EKO, 2022, (4): 81–93. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2022-4-81-93

18. Rybakovsky O. L. Economic factors in the demography of Russian regions (2017–2023). Population, 2025, 28(1): 4–16. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2025-1-4-16

19. Mukhacheva A. V. Demographic potential of single-industry towns of Kemerovo Region as a component of the quality of life. Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Political, Sociological and Economic Sciences, 2018, (3): 120–129. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2018-3-120-129

20. Dorofeeva T. P., Shubina N. P. Socio-economic status of the region through the lens of secondary vocational education graduates’ employment promotion. Vestnik Kemerovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriia: Politicheskie, sotsio logicheskie i ekonomicheskie nauki, 2023, 8(1): 93–102. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2023-8-1-93-102

21. Dozhdikov A. V. Interregional migration of youth in the Russian Federation. DEMIS. Demographic Research, 2024, 4(3): 119–137. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2024.4.3.8

22. Rybakovsky O. L. Climate factor in the demography of Russian regions (2017–2023). Population, 2025, 28(2): 4–15. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2025-2-4-15

23. Sakevich V. I., Denisov B. P. Regional characteristics of birth control in Russia in 2018–2022. Demographic Review, 2024, 11(3): 67–87. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v11i3.22715

24. Hamer G. V. Death rate in Russia: State and measures to reduce it. International Journal of Humanities and Natural Sciences, 2020, (3-2): 91–99. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24411/2500-1000-2020-10268

25. Valiakhmetov R. M., Turkaev M. S. Social well-being of residents of Russian regions as a factor in the migration potential of the local population. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 2024, 20(4): 629–644. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_11_629_644

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

JATS XML

Chief editor

Elena A. Morozova

morea@inbox.ru

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Creative Commons

GOST

Ulyanchenko N. V., Kotov R. M. Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics // . 2026. pp. 131-140. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2026-11-1-131-140. EDN: YRVIDI. (Date of access 19.08.2026).

MLA

Nadezhda Ulyanchenko, Kotov R. M.. "Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics." (2026): 131-140. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2026-11-1-131-140. EDN: YRVIDI.

APA

Ulyanchenko N. V., Kotov R. M. (2026). Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics. , 131-140. https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2026-11-1-131-140 EDN: YRVIDI.

Chicago

Nadezhda Ulyanchenko, Kotov R. M.. "Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics." , no. (2026): 131-140. https://doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2026-11-1-131-140. EDN: YRVIDI.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Ulyanchenko N. V., Kotov R. M. | title = Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics | journal = | year = 2026 | pages = 131-140 | doi = 10.21603/2500-3372-2026-11-1-131-140 }} EDN: YRVIDI

Copy

Export: BibTeX EndNote RefMan RusMARC

DEMOGRAPHIC MODELING IN THE KEMEROVO REGION: A COHORT-COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics

Confirmation