Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Political, Sociological and Economic sciences Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Political, Sociological and Economic sciences Вестник Кемеровского государственного университета. Серия: Политические, социологические и экономические науки 2500-3372 2542-1190 109031 10.21603/2500-3372-2025-10-4-523-533 zqhlfd Социокультурное и политическое развитие общества Society: Cultural and Political Development Социокультурное и политическое развитие общества Natural Disasters in South Asia: How Governments Maintain Legitimacy in the Wake of Natural Disasters Стихийные бедствия в Южной Азии: как правительства сохраняют легитимность после катастроф Даянанда Чатурика Dayananda Chaturika Марикар Фаиз Marikar Faiz faiz@kdu.ac.lk Саутбэнк Монтессори Перт Австралия Southbank Montessori Perth Australia Университет обороны имени генерала сэра Джона Котелавала Ратмалана Шри-Ланка General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University Ratmalana Sri Lanka 01 12 2025 01 12 2025 10 4 523 533 11 05 2025 09 06 2025 https://jsocnet.ru/en/nauka/article/109031/view

Цель – изучить влияние стихийных бедствий на легитимность правительств стран Южной Азии. Вероятность того, что правительство столкнется с кризисом легитимности на фоне стихийных бедствий, зависит от следующих параметров: 1) частоты стихийных бедствий, 2) качества реагирования правительства на стихийные бедствия, 3) типа политического режима. Представлены два тематических исследования последствий циклона Айла в Бангладеш и Индии в 2009 г. Оба правительства продемонстрировали плохую подготовку, а также неадекватную немедленную и долгосрочную реакцию, что привело к общественной критике, антиправительственным протестам и антипрезидентским голосованиям. Когда оппозиционные партии превратили общественное недовольство в более широкую политическую мобилизацию, доверие к официальным правительствам резко упало, что привело к кризису легитимности. Вопреки распространенному мнению, демократия может оказаться не самой простой политической средой для эффективного реагирования на стихийные бедствия. Уровень реагирования государства зависит от политических опасений в области безопасности, степени административной эффективности, уровня коррупции, роли вооруженных сил в ликвидации последствий стихийных бедствий, социально-­экономических проблем пострадавших людей и конкуренции за политическое руководство в процессе ликвидации последствий стихийных бедствий. Статья позволяет глубже понять политическую и социальную напряженность, вызванную стихийными бедствиями, в Бангладеш и Индии. Так как слишком много их энергии было потрачено на борьбу со стихийными бедствиями, это ослабило способность контролировать ситуацию. Установлено, что политические лидеры Бангладеш и Индии использовали стихийные бедствия как возможность усиления покровительства и подавления политической оппозиции в пострадавших районах.

The article focuses on the effect of natural disasters on the legitimacy of South-Asian governments. The likelihood of a government to face a legitimacy crisis in a post-disaster context depends on the following parameters: 1) the frequency of disasters, 2) the quality of government response to disasters, 3) the type of political regime. This article introduces two case studies of Bangladesh and India in the aftermath of cyclone Aila in 2009. Both governments demonstrated poor preparation, as well as an inadequate immediate and long-term response, which resulted in public criticism, anti-government protests, and anti-president votes. When opposition parties converted the public frustration into broader political mobilization, the trust to the official governments plummeted, causing a crisis of legitimacy. Contrary to popular belief, democracy may not provide the easiest political environment for effective disaster response. The level of state response depends on the political security anxieties, the extent of administrative effectiveness, the corruption level, the role of the military in the disaster response, the socio-economic issues of the people affected, and the political leadership competition during the disaster management process. This study provides a deeper understanding of disaster-induced political and social tensions in Bangladesh and India. As too much of their energy was spent on disaster management, it diminished their ability to control. Political leaders in Bangladesh and India used disasters as opportunities to strengthen patronage and reject political opposition in affected areas.

 демократия борьба со стихийными бедствиями легитимность стихийные бедствия политическая напряженность Бангладеш Индия democracy disaster management legitimacy natural disasters political tension Bangladesh India

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